Stock Swings, Inflation Eases, and Economic Highlights

XRP price fell 6.6% to $2.15.
Zeta Global faced a 37% stock drop.
Argentina’s inflation fell to 2.4%.
Palantir’s stock increased 386.7% YTD.
Social Security COLA increased by 2.5%.
Tech
Cryptocurrency Market Fluctuations
- XRP Price Drop and Market Trends: XRP fell 6.6% in 24 hours, reaching $2.15 with a $215B market cap. This decline reflects broader market corrections driven by profit-taking after a 270% YTD gain and rising interest rates.
- Altcoin Corrections and Treasury Yields: Several altcoins (Cardano, Solana, Shiba Inu, Aptos) experienced declines (5-7%) due to rising long-term Treasury yields (near 4.6%), reducing demand for riskier assets.
- Bitcoin’s Price Movement and Risk Sentiment: Bitcoin fell nearly 4%, trading above $95,000, mirroring a broader risk-off sentiment affecting speculative assets.
- US Political Climate and Crypto: The upcoming US presidential transition and potential SEC leadership changes could positively impact crypto, particularly XRP. The nomination of Paul Atkins is seen favorably.
AI Sector Investment and Growth
- Palantir’s Explosive Growth and Government Contracts: Palantir (PLTR) saw a 386.7% YTD increase, exceeding Nvidia’s growth (approx. 190%). Success stems from its AIP, strong customer growth (39% YoY), and government contracts.
- Nvidia’s Market Leadership and Future Chips: Nvidia (NVDA) maintains GPU market dominance, fueled by Hopper architecture and upcoming Blackwell chips (projected 800,000 units in Q1 2025), offering 30x faster AI inference.
- Palantir vs. Nvidia Valuation Comparison: While Palantir shows impressive growth, Nvidia offers a more attractive valuation (lower P/E and P/CF ratios), higher dividend payout, and stronger projected growth rates.
- AI ETF Investment Opportunities: Investors can access the AI sector through various ETFs like SMH, SEMI, SHOC, DAT, AIPI, and ADPV; however, potential slowdown in AI investments by tech giants poses a risk.
US Semiconductor Market and Global Tech News
- Potential Semiconductor Slowdown: Concerns exist regarding a potential slowdown in AI investment by major US tech giants, impacting semiconductor companies due to decreased spending.
- Notable Stock Movements: Several companies saw significant stock price changes including Rigetti Computing (+36%), GameStop (+5.9%), and Palladyne AI (+47.57%).
- European Venture Capital in Aerospace: Audacia Expansion Ventures secured €137 million, focusing on sustainable aerospace and defense in Europe. This highlights growth in European startups but also funding disparity compared to US investments ($11.5B vs $1.4B in Space in 2024).
- Tech Company Innovations and Products: Himax showcased a new LCoS microdisplay for AR; Wisson Robotics will debut Pliabot®; Pixelworks’ X5 Turbo was integrated into a smartphone; and Onvo delivered 20,000 SUVs in 100 days.
Legal Challenges and Regulatory Developments
- Lawsuits Against Tech Companies: Class-action lawsuits targeted Wolfspeed (following revenue shortfall), ASML Holding (allegations of misleading investors), and Enphase Energy.
- SEC Crypto Regulation Changes: The potential change in SEC leadership could create a more favorable environment for crypto, potentially leading to more spot crypto ETF approvals.
- Nasdaq Compliance Issues: Fangdd Network Group (DUO) received a Nasdaq non-compliance notification, while SEALSQ Corp regained compliance.
- Venture Capital in Web3: Tether invested in Arcanum Capital’s fund focusing on Web3 technologies, including blockchain and AI intersection.
US Stock Market Performance and Analysis
- US Stock Market Indices: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ showed slight declines, while the Dow Jones showed a marginal increase.
- Significant Stock Gains: Several stocks saw large gains, reflecting sector volatility and individual company performance.
- Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Analyst opinions varied significantly, reflecting the uncertainty in the tech sector.
- Zacks Rank and Style Scores: Companies were evaluated using Zacks Rank and Style Scores to assess investment potential.
Acquisitions, Partnerships, and Other Developments
- Company Acquisitions and Partnerships: Amazon’s potential Hims & Hers acquisition and various other partnerships were discussed, including EHang’s collaboration with a Chinese company.
- Potential Meta Stock Split: Meta Platforms, a “Magnificent Seven” company, is likely to announce a stock split in 2025 given its high share price.
- US-China Trade War Impact: The ongoing US-China trade war poses challenges for semiconductor companies like Qualcomm, AMD, Intel, Micron, and ASML. Boeing’s engineers moving to space companies was mentioned.
- Additional Tech News: News covered included earnings reports, Bitcoin’s potential, AI technology advancements, and other miscellaneous sector developments.
Finance
Securities Lawsuits in US and Europe
- Zeta Global Securities Fraud: A class-action lawsuit alleges Zeta Global (ZETA) misled investors about its revenue, causing a 37.07% stock drop to $17.76 on November 13, 2024. Lead plaintiff deadline: January 21, 2025.
- Kyverna Therapeutics IPO Misstatements: A lawsuit claims Kyverna Therapeutics (KYTX) hid adverse trial data in its February 2024 IPO prospectus. Lead plaintiff deadline: February 7, 2025.
- Celsius, PACS, DMC, and Lilium Lawsuits: Celsius Holdings (CELH), PACS Group (PACS), DMC Global (BOOM), and Lilium N.V. (LILMF) face class-action lawsuits alleging misleading statements, with significant stock price drops reported.
- Ongoing Securities Fraud Investigations: Several companies, including Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX), UnitedHealth (UNH), and others, are under investigation for potential securities violations.
Company Performance and Actions
- Linde’s Q2 Earnings: Linde (LIN), with a $201 billion market cap, reported mixed Q2 results, with stock at $422.98 on November 6, 2024.
- HSBC’s Asia-Focused Restructuring: HSBC (HSBC) reached a five-year high, driven by restructuring and an Asia pivot, including a $3 billion share buyback. Its price-to-tangible book value is 0.89X.
- Carnival’s Post-Pandemic Recovery: Carnival Corp. (CCL) shows signs of recovery with record bookings, despite a 64% drop from its peak. Its trailing P/E is 23, forward P/E is 15.
- Onex Corporation Share Buyback: Onex Corporation (ONEX) repurchased 2,257,722 shares at $117.00 per share, totaling $400 million.
US Market Outlook and ETF Trends
- Subdued Santa Claus Rally?: Experts predict a weaker-than-usual “Santa Claus rally” due to market declines and Fed rate uncertainty; the S&P 500 historically gains 0.85% during this period.
- Potential Market Correction: Concerns exist about a potential 10% market correction due to high valuations and uncertainty.
- Record ETF Launches: The US saw a record 650 ETF launches in 2024.
- ETF Performance Extremes: Some leveraged ETFs significantly underperformed, while others, like Jensen’s Quality Growth and Neuberger Berman’s Small-Mid Cap ETFs, outperformed. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw major inflows.
Retirement and Other Financial News
- Social Security COLA: The 2025 Social Security COLA is 2.5%, potentially insufficient for rising costs.
- Berkshire Hathaway Performance: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) stock rallied 55% over three years but is considered overvalued. A $10,000 investment in 1965 would be worth $381.9 million today.
- Norsk Hydro (Norway) Share Buyback: Norsk Hydro ASA conducted a share buyback program from September 11, 2024, to February 28, 2025.
- Brookfield Asset Management (Canada) Restructuring: Brookfield Asset Management will hold a shareholder meeting on January 27, 2025, to vote on a restructuring plan increasing the board of directors.
Healthcare
Legal Challenges Facing Healthcare Companies
- Medical Device Recalls and Lawsuits: Dentsply Sirona’s Byte aligner recall, costing $495 million and causing an over 28% stock drop, and subsequent lawsuits highlight significant risks in medical device manufacturing. Similar legal challenges are faced by Kyverna Therapeutics (KYTX), whose IPO was followed by an 82% stock decline due to adverse trial data and a lawsuit.
- FDA Rejections and Clinical Trial Issues: Applied Therapeutics (APLT) experienced an over 80% stock price crash after the FDA rejected its govorestat NDA and issued a warning letter. This underscores the high stakes of regulatory approvals and the potential for significant financial penalties from regulatory failures.
Financial Performance and Outlook of Healthcare Companies
- Contrasting Quarterly Results: Sensus Healthcare (SRTS) reported strong Q3 earnings, exceeding expectations by 450%, but projects significant declines for Q4, illustrating the volatile nature of the healthcare market. Align Technology (ALGN) demonstrated Invisalign growth, but faces macroeconomic headwinds.
- Growth and Challenges in Diagnostics: Veracyte (VCYT) showcased growth in Afirma and Decipher tests, yet navigates macroeconomic concerns and increased expenses. This trend reflects ongoing challenges faced by medical technology firms balancing growth with cost management.
Corporate Restructuring and Financing
- Reverse Stock Splits and Restructurings: Cara Therapeutics (CARA) implemented a 1-for-12 reverse stock split to maintain Nasdaq listing. Bright Green Corporation (BGXX) is undergoing a major restructuring, including executive resignations and a shift in manufacturing focus. These actions illustrate the pressures some companies face in maintaining financial stability and market position.
- Private Investments and Mergers: Vor Bio (VOR) secured $55.6 million in PIPE financing, showcasing continued investor interest in promising drug development. Vincerx Pharma’s merger with Oqory highlights consolidation trends within the industry.
Global Healthcare Market Performance
- International Market Challenges: AstraZeneca’s (AZN) 15% stock price drop due to investigations in China highlights the complexities of navigating global regulations and risks. Takeda Pharmaceutical’s (TAK) HYQVIA approval in Japan exemplifies the expansion opportunities in international markets.
- US Market Performance and Outlook: Abbott (ABT) maintained positive momentum across its diverse segments, yet faces macroeconomic challenges. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shows strong revenue growth despite only a Hold Zacks Rank. This mixed bag reflects both the resilience and vulnerabilities of the US healthcare market.
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Antitrust Concerns
- European Market Consolidation: Equasens’ acquisition of Calimed SAS expands its presence in the French medical software market, reflecting broader consolidation trends in Europe.
- US Merger Challenges: The extended merger deadline for Amedisys (AMED) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH), facing DOJ antitrust concerns, highlights the complexities of large-scale healthcare mergers in the US.
Other Key Developments
- Funding and Capital Raising: Psyence Biomed (PBM) closed a $2 million private placement, showcasing ongoing efforts of smaller firms to secure capital for operations and growth.
Economy & Real estate
US Social Security Reform
- Social Security Fairness Act’s Potential Impact: The bipartisan Social Security Fairness Act aims to repeal the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO), potentially benefiting 2.8 million Americans. This could increase monthly benefits significantly.
- Financial Implications of Reform: Critics worry that increased benefits will accelerate the depletion of Social Security’s trust funds, projected to run out by 2035, possibly hastening it by six months. At that point, it would only cover about 83% of future benefits.
- Benefit Claiming Age Trends: Fewer than 10% of 2023 retirees claimed benefits at age 70, despite maximizing benefits for 90% of those aged 45-62. Average monthly benefits vary, from $1,311 at 62 to $2,068 at 70.
- WEP and GPO Effects on Retirees: The WEP affects those with both Social Security and other pensions, while the GPO impacts those with spousal/survivor benefits and pensions. The average spousal benefit is approximately $900 per month.
US and Global Market Overview
- US Market Performance (December 26th): The Dow Jones closed at 43,325.80 (+0.07%), while the S&P 500 fell to 6,037.59 (-0.04%) and the Nasdaq to 20,020.36 (-0.05%). Initial jobless claims dropped to 219,000.
- Global Market Indices: Asian markets saw gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.77% to 40,277.50; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.50%; India’s Nifty 50 climbed 0.35%. European markets also rose.
- Commodity Price Movements: Crude oil (WTI) traded at $70.23/bbl (+0.86%), Brent at $73.41/bbl (+0.76%), and natural gas at $3.418 (+2.98%). Gold fell 0.48% to $2,641.16.
- Currency Exchange Rates: The US Dollar Index slightly decreased to 108.07 (-0.06%), but is projected to finish the year with a 7% increase. USD/JPY fell to 157.75 (-0.16%).
Argentina’s Economic Transformation Under Milei
- Milei’s Fiscal Austerity Measures: President Milei implemented substantial reforms, including spending cuts and the dismissal of over 30,000 government employees.
- Inflation and Fiscal Results: Argentina’s monthly inflation decreased from 25% (December 2023) to 2.4% (December 2024), achieving its first fiscal surplus in 15 years.
- Market Response and Social Costs: The S&P Merval Index surged over 175% in 2024, and the ARGT ETF gained over 65%. However, poverty and unemployment increased; Milei’s approval rating is 48%.
- Economic Forecast for Argentina: BBVA Research projects economic recovery in 2025, driven by increased private consumption and investment, after a brief 2024 recession.
US Automotive Parts Market Dynamics
- Aging US Vehicle Fleet: The average age of US vehicles hit a record 12.6 years in 2024, significantly increasing demand for replacement parts.
- Market Growth and Valuation: The industry is expanding due to the aging fleet, increased vehicle complexity, and affordability concerns. High interest rates favor repairs over new car purchases. Its valuation is comparatively attractive.
- Industry Performance and Ranking: The Zacks Automotive Replacement Parts industry ranks #29 (top 12%), suggesting strong near-term prospects. However, it underperformed the S&P 500 and its sector over the past year. Its trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA is 8.8X.
- Key Players and Performance: Dorman Products (DORM) and Standard Motor Products (SMP) are notable players. Dorman has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while Standard Motor has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Their sales and earnings growth projections vary.
Retail
Legal and Financial Challenges
- Chipotle Lawsuits: Two class-action lawsuits allege Chipotle misrepresented portion sizes and costs, causing a 7.8% stock drop after weak Q3 sales. Investors have until January 10, 2025, to seek lead plaintiff status.
- TOPPAN’s Acquisition: TOPPAN Holdings Inc. will acquire Sonoco’s Thermoformed & Flexible Packaging business for $1.8 billion. This $1.3 billion (2023 revenue) business serves food, retail, and medical sectors in the Americas.
- Retail Bankruptcies: Party City filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy again, while Big Lots failed to find a buyer. The Container Store is restructuring but plans to remain operational.
Retail Investment and Expansion
- Apranga Group Expansion (Lithuania): Apranga Group’s 2024 investment forecast is €10.5-11.0 million, including a new Vilnius property acquisition (250 sq. m).
- Tantech’s U.S. Growth: Tantech Holdings Ltd. signed a $5 million annual purchase agreement with Heidi Enterprise Group for flooring, expanding its U.S. market presence. This ensures monthly purchases of $400,000-$500,000.
High-Growth Retail Companies
- Costco, Amazon, and Chewy: Costco’s newest warehouse had record-high opening day sales of $2.9 million. Amazon’s AWS reached an $110 billion annualized revenue run rate. Chewy is expanding into the $25 billion veterinary services market.
- Strong Performers: Colgate-Palmolive, Freshpet (132.9% average earnings surprise), Vital Farms (48.5% average earnings surprise), and McCormick show strong financial performance with significant projected growth.
Restaurant Sector Performance
- Darden Restaurants’ Growth: Darden Restaurants reported strong Q2 results, exceeding expectations with $2.9 billion in total sales (a 6% year-over-year increase). They are expanding with a Chuy’s acquisition (103 restaurants) and a new point-of-sale system.
- Wingstop and Brinker: Wingstop saw significant same-store sales growth (20.9% year-over-year) but faces increased SG&A expenses. Brinker International is considered a strong buy.
Mergers and Acquisitions
- Hyatt’s Potential Acquisition: Hyatt Hotels Corporation is in exclusive talks to potentially acquire Playa Hotels & Resorts, expanding its all-inclusive resort portfolio. Hyatt’s acquisition strategy has driven significant growth.
- Golden Grail’s Expansion: Golden Grail Beverages is acquiring UPDC Beverages’ operational assets, expanding its beverage co-packing capabilities.
Retail Stock Performance
- Diverse Stock Performance: Newell Brands saw significant growth (61.7%), exceeding sector averages. Nike has a negative earnings outlook, leading to a sell rating. Costco maintains a hold rating. Other companies like Dutch Bros, DICK’S Sporting Goods, and others show varied performance. Wingstop experienced a significant decline (-30.1%). Short interest in Chipotle is elevated. Option trading data for various companies offer insights into investor sentiment.
Infrastructure
US Infrastructure Investments
- PSEG’s Expansion into Renewables: Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) plans to invest $18-21 billion (2024-2028) in infrastructure, focusing on solar (158 MW installed PV capacity by Dec 31, 2023) and onshore transmission for offshore wind. This aims for 6-7.5% annual rate base growth.
- PSEG’s Financial Challenges: Despite renewable investments, PSEG faces high long-term debt ($18.96 billion as of Sept 30, 2024) and remediation costs ($222-246 million). Its cash reserves are significantly lower than its debt.
- Evergy’s Net-Zero Strategy: Evergy, Inc. will invest nearly $16.2 billion (2025-2029) in transmission and distribution, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2045. This includes two new 705 MW natural gas plants (operational in 2029 and 2030).
- Evergy’s Operational Risks: Evergy faces risks from project delays, rising equipment costs, and weather-related demand fluctuations.
MasTec’s Growth and Diversification
- Strong Financial Results: MasTec, Inc. demonstrated strong growth, with a 29.4% stock increase (past six months), surpassing industry performance. It reported an 18-month backlog of $13.86 billion (Sept 30, 2024), an 11% year-over-year increase, and reduced its debt by over $900 million through Q3 2024.
- Segment Performance Highlights: The Clean Energy & Infrastructure segment contributed 35% to Q3 2024 revenue, while the Communications segment (28.5% of Q3 revenue) showed double-digit growth.
- Growth Catalysts: Government initiatives (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act) and a diversified business model fueled MasTec’s success.
- Positive Future Outlook: MasTec projects double-digit revenue growth in 2025 driven by communications, power delivery, and clean energy, with improved margins compared to 2024, showing a 23.3% year-over-year increase in earnings.
Aalberts N.V. Expands in North America
- Paulo Products Acquisition: Aalberts N.V. acquired Paulo Products, a North American industrial heat treatment provider (USD 105 million annual revenue, 522 employees). This enhances Aalberts’ US presence and capabilities.
- Strategic Growth Plan: The acquisition aligns with Aalberts’ “thrive 2030” strategy, expanding its North American footprint and offering improved service capabilities.
- Integration and Synergies: Paulo’s expertise will integrate into Aalberts Surface Technologies, creating a more competitive business.
Global Aviation Infrastructure
- AerCap’s Leaseback Deal (Angola): AerCap Holdings N.V. entered a sale and leaseback agreement with TAAG Angola Airlines for a Boeing 787-9 aircraft (delivery in Feb 2025). This supports TAAG’s fleet modernization and expansion.
Construction Partners’ Positive Outlook
- Zacks Rating Upgrade: Construction Partners (ROAD) received a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) upgrade, based on positive earnings estimate revisions.
US Construction Market
- ROAD’s Projected Growth: Construction Partners is projected to earn $1.96 per share in fiscal year 2025 (a 47.4% year-over-year increase), a 9.7% increase over the past three months.
Commodities
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
- Bitcoin Price Volatility: Bitcoin’s price fluctuated significantly, dropping to $94,300 after briefly nearing $100,000, reflecting profit-taking and a bearish market sentiment. Over $270 million in cryptocurrencies were liquidated in 24 hours. Analysts cited Bitcoin’s fall below the $97,300 support level as a concerning indicator.
- Altcoin Market Gains: Despite Bitcoin’s decline, several altcoins, including Dogecoin (+19% weekly gain), Shiba Inu (+19.2%), and Pepe (+23.9%), experienced substantial price increases. High trading volumes and bullish technical indicators fueled this upward trend. However, $6.7 million in DOGE was liquidated in 24 hours. The global cryptocurrency market cap contracted to $3.31 trillion.
- Traditional Market Correlation: The slight gain in the Dow Jones (0.07%, closing at 43,325.80) contrasted with minor losses in the S&P 500 (-0.04%) and Nasdaq (-0.05%), indicating a decoupling between cryptocurrency and traditional stock markets. U.S. jobless claims remained low at 219,000, and the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.587%.
Energy Market Trends
- Natural Gas Price Surge: The natural gas ETF UNG showed a 7% monthly and 11% weekly increase, driven by cold weather forecasts and high demand expectations. The leveraged ETF BOIL surged by 21.3% weekly. However, mixed short-term weather predictions could moderate price growth. Current prices are at $3.80.
- Oil and Gas Company Performance Divergence: Energy Transfer LP (ET) saw its unit price rise 23.4% year-to-date due to its pipeline network, acquisitions, and strong earnings projections (21.1% and 11.7% growth projected for 2024 and 2025). Devon Energy (DVN) shares, however, fell -17.8% last month.
- Energy Mergers and Acquisitions: Vitesse Energy (VTS) acquired Lucero Energy for $222 million, expanding production and increasing its dividend. BWR Exploration is merging with Electro Metals and Mining, creating a new precious and critical metals company in Quebec.
- International Energy Projects: Chevron (CVX) launched the Sanha Lean Gas Connection project in Angola, increasing gas feedstock to the Angola LNG plant by 300 mmscf/d.
Mining and Materials Developments
- Lithium and Precious Metals: Nevada Lithium Resources will begin trading on the TSXV on December 31, 2024, showcasing its Bonnie Claire Lithium Project’s significant lithium resources. Osisko Gold Royalties increased its silver holdings at the Gibraltar mine and acquired royalties on the Dalgaranga Gold project.
- Gold Mining Sector Performance: Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM) experienced bearish signals (“Death Cross”), influenced by geopolitical factors and rising Treasury yields. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is highlighted for its strong valuation and earnings growth. IAMGOLD (IAG) showed significant share growth (102%).
- Steel and Other Metals Market: Nucor (NUE) displayed high implied volatility in options, suggesting anticipated price movements. Radius Recycling will release its Q1 2025 results on January 8, 2025. Sisecam completed the acquisition of Ciner Group’s U.S. soda ash operations, increasing its global capacity to over 10 million tons.
Select Commodity Company News
- Uranium Industry Consolidation: Paladin Energy Ltd. (PALAF) acquired Fission Uranium Corp. (FCUUF), creating a major global uranium player with a $3.5 billion market cap.
- Offshore Drilling Restructuring: Seadrill Limited (SDRL) sold its West Prospero rig for $45 million, focusing its fleet optimization.
Cannabis Sector Developments
- WEED Inc. Outlook: WEED Inc. shared its 2024 highlights and 2025 plans, focusing on consumer packaged goods and rare cannabis strains. The company reported no long-term debt and approximately 125 million shares outstanding.
Other Commodity News
- Gold Stream Financing (Côte d’Ivoire): Montage Gold Corp. secured a US$75 million gold stream from Zijin Mining Group for its Koné project, anticipating Q2 2027 production.
- Mining Option Agreements (Quebec): Globex Mining Enterprises signed an option agreement with Electro Metals and Mining for the Magusi-Fabie Mines property. Globex also reported financing for the Bell Mountain Gold Project acquisition.
Politics
US Presidential Election & Aftermath
- Republican Primary Debate Analysis: Nikki Haley emerged as a potential frontrunner in the third GOP debate, according to polls from 538, the Washington Post, and Ipsos. Vivek Ramaswamy, however, finished last, sparking debate about his economic and cultural views.
- Ramaswamy’s Economic Plans & Tech Focus: Vivek Ramaswamy’s appointment to a key role in a potential Trump administration fuels discussion of his “Sputnik moment” in tech and his controversial hiring stance. This suggests a potential shift in government policy.
- Haley’s Counter-Narrative & Labor Focus: Nikki Haley challenged Ramaswamy’s views, focusing on supporting American workers and rejecting criticisms of American culture. Her approach emphasizes a focus on American priorities and competitiveness.
- Post-Election Market Impact & Investment Strategies: Cathie Wood predicts a positive impact on innovation and suggests retroactive tax cuts to boost the economy. Her ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) saw a 17% surge following the election results.
International Political Developments
- Passing of Manmohan Singh & Global Tributes: Former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s death at age 92 prompted global tributes. His economic reforms in the 1990s and contributions to US-India relations, especially in nuclear technology, were widely recognized.
- Singh’s Economic Legacy in India: Manmohan Singh’s role in India’s 1991 economic liberalization, opening the nation to foreign investment, shaped its subsequent growth trajectory. His Prime Ministership (2004-2014) saw periods of both rapid and slower growth.
South Korea’s Political Upheaval
- Dual Impeachments and Constitutional Crisis: South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol and acting President Han Duck-soo were both impeached within a short period. This followed Yoon’s declaration of martial law and Han’s judicial appointments refusal.
- Economic Fallout from Political Instability: The dual impeachments significantly impacted South Korean markets, with the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) falling by as much as 7%. Several companies saw double-digit declines, and the Korean Won plummeted.
US Cannabis Policy Stalemate
- Federal Cannabis Reclassification Delay: The DEA’s failure to reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III hindered efforts towards clearer industry regulation, taxation, and research.
- State-Level Cannabis Legalization Efforts: Nebraska legalized medical cannabis, while Florida and North/South Dakota rejected recreational marijuana legalization. This underscores the continued divergence in state-level cannabis policies.
- US Cannabis Market Performance & Challenges: The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) experienced a significant 48% decline due to regulatory uncertainty, taxation issues, and competition.
- Evolving Public Opinion & Presidential Action: Despite legislative hurdles, marijuana’s popularity continues to grow. President Biden commuted sentences for approximately 1500 individuals, including a small number of cannabis offenders, reflecting evolving societal attitudes.
Stock Picks
Strong Buy Signals
- High Growth, Strong Value: American Airlines (AAL), Fresenius Medical Care (FMS), and TDK Corporation (TTDKY) show strong Zacks Rank #1 ratings and impressive value metrics. AAL boasts a Value Score of A, an 18.7% earnings estimate increase, and a P/E of 10.50 (vs. industry average 20.30). FMS also has a Value Score of A, with a 0.7% earnings increase and a P/E of 14.68 (vs. S&P average 25.17). TDKY, with a Value Score of B, saw a 77.8% earnings estimate surge and a P/E of 20.00 (vs. S&P average 25.17). Suzuki Motor (SZKMY) also exhibits a Zacks Rank #1, with a projected 7.3% year-over-year EPS increase. Carpenter Technology (CRS) also holds a Zacks Rank #1 due to positive earnings revisions.
- Growth with Positive Revisions: Payoneer Global (PAYO) and TDK Corporation (TTDKY) showcase robust growth and positive earnings revisions. PAYO, with a Zacks Rank #1, saw a 40% earnings estimate increase and a 33.3% share price increase in three months. TTDKY experienced a 77.8% increase in current-year earnings estimates and a 5.7% share price increase in the last month. Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) showed a 7.4% share gain in the last three months.
- Momentum and Undervaluation: Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) demonstrates strong momentum, with a 9.9% four-week and 73.4% twelve-week price increase. Its Zacks Rank #2 and Momentum Score of A, combined with a low P/S ratio of 0.53, suggest potential undervaluation.
Stocks to Avoid
- Negative Earnings Revisions: Baidu (BIDU), DENTSPLY SIRONA (XRAY), Douglas Dynamics (PLOW), and ATI Inc. (ATI) received Zacks Rank #5 ratings due to negative earnings revisions. BIDU, XRAY, and PLOW experienced declines of -5.2%, -6.6%, and -11.1% respectively, in current-year earnings estimates. ATI’s FY24 and FY25 EPS estimates decreased by 8% and 11% following weak Q3 results.
High-Growth Restaurant Sector
- Fast-Casual Growth: Cava Group (CAVA) and Dutch Bros (BROS) represent high-growth restaurant stocks, though with high valuations. CAVA has a P/E of 258 and a P/S of 14.7, while Dutch Bros has a P/E of 188 and a P/S of 7.1. Cava, however, exhibits significantly higher profit margins and return on equity, and a much higher insider ownership percentage of 22.9%.
Valuation and Market Signals
- High RSI Indicators: KULR Technology (KULR) and Boeing (BA) show high Relative Strength Index (RSI) values (91 and 75 respectively), signaling potential overbought conditions. KULR surged 567% last month, while Boeing gained 18%.
- Rising P/E Ratios: Constellation Brands (STZ), Stryve Foods (SNAX), Canoo (GOEV), Fortuna Mining (FSM), and Qualcomm (QCOM) display rising P/E ratios, suggesting strong investor confidence and growth potential. All demonstrate current-year EPS growth exceeding last year’s actual growth, with consistent price gains.
High Dividend Yield Stocks
- Consumer Discretionary Dividends: Guess? (GES), Kohl’s (KSS), and Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) offer high dividend yields (8.63%, 13.47%, and 7.73% respectively), but recent performance has been mixed. This includes decreased EPS for Guess?, disappointing results and guidance cuts for Kohl’s, and mixed results for Bloomin’ Brands.
Sector Performance
- Top Performers: Flexsteel Industries (FLXS) significantly outperformed its Consumer Discretionary sector peers year-to-date (206.7% vs. 13.9% average). Paramount Global (PARAA) also performed strongly. In the Construction sector, Lennox International (LII) outperformed the sector average (40.7% vs. 15.4%) but lagged its industry, while Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) showed stronger performance.
