Eksentricity

Tech

Mobile Payments

• AXP Earnings Outlook: Analyst expectations for American Express’s (AXP) upcoming earnings report have been positive since mid-July. They expect earnings per share of $3.27, indicating flat growth year-over-year. The company achieved record revenue of $16.3 billion in the previous quarter and is actively expanding its customer base, with 3.3 million new cardholders added. Key metrics to monitor include new card acquisitions and fee revenue growth. Shares are currently trading at a 19.4X forward earnings multiple, above the 16.1X five-year median. However, the PEG ratio of 1.4X suggests a fair valuation considering anticipated growth.
• DFS Exceeds Expectations: Discover Financial Services (DFS) surpassed analysts’ expectations for both earnings per share and sales, demonstrating growth rates of 70% and 20%, respectively. Shares are trading at all-time highs, reflecting a strong performance. The company saw moderate loan growth during the period, indicating a positive economic outlook. Total loans reached $127 billion, a 4% year-over-year increase, with personal loans showing a 10% increase. Additionally, a slight credit improvement was observed, signaling a positive environment.
• PayPal Raises Guidance: PayPal (PYPL) boosted its 2024 guidance and increased share repurchases, prompting a positive response from investors. Shares have rebounded this year, gaining 30% after a period of weakness. The company’s current valuation supports further gains, with a forward earnings multiple of 16.9X, below the 28.5X five-year median and well below the 84.9X five-year high. The PEG ratio stands at 1.4X, also below its five-year median and highs.

AI & Cloud

• Nvidia’s Blackwell Update: Google, Meta Platforms, and other tech giants have announced plans to leverage Nvidia’s (NVDA) Blackwell platform. Blackwell is Nvidia’s latest GPU architecture, offering substantial performance enhancements over its predecessor. Nvidia expects to ship the GB200 NVL72 system in the first quarter of 2025. However, Amazon’s cloud unit has indicated it will wait for bulk volumes of Blackwell chips before integrating them into its data centers. Analysts believe Blackwell could be a game-changer for AI computing, with some predicting it will propel Nvidia’s valuation to $10 trillion by 2025.

Return To Office

• Amazon’s Policy Shift: Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS unit CEO, Matt Garman, has defended the company’s five-day in-office policy, suggesting that employees who oppose it should consider alternative employment options. Garman stated that a majority of AWS workers support the policy. Amazon employees have expressed concerns about the policy, arguing that it unnecessarily increases commuting time and that the advantages of in-office work are not supported by data. Amazon’s three-day in-office policy ended last month with the shift to five days, with CEO Andy Jassy citing the need to “invent, collaborate and be connected.”
• Spotify’s Work From Anywhere: Spotify Inc (SPOT) continues to support a work-from-anywhere policy. Spotify’s chief human resources officer, Katarina Berg, stated earlier this month, “You can’t spend a lot of time hiring grown-ups and then treat them like children.”

Crypto & DeFi

• Coinbase Delists Non-compliant Stablecoins (EU): Coinbase Global (COIN) has announced that it will restrict services for stablecoins that do not comply with the European Union’s (EU) Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulations. MiCA mandates that stablecoin issuers hold an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license and imposes strict compliance requirements on exchanges. Coinbase’s decision reflects its commitment to navigating the increasingly complex regulatory landscape in the crypto industry, particularly in Europe.

Other Tech

• OKX Wallet Updates: OKX has announced two updates to its OKX Wallet: 1) support for Gravity, a Layer 1 network designed for mass adoption; 2) integration with FacetSwap, an innovative DEX built on the Facet protocol. These updates enhance OKX Wallet’s functionality, making it a more versatile and user-friendly platform for managing digital assets across multiple blockchains.

Finance

Bank Performance

• Solid Q3 Earnings: Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC), reported strong third-quarter earnings, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Strong performance in wealth management, investment banking, and trading activities drove the results, partially offset by weakness in net interest income (NII).
• NII Outlook: While NII was pressured in the third quarter, banks expect improvement as the yield curve normalizes. Wells Fargo indicated that NII may have bottomed in the third quarter, while Bank of America foresees an inflection in NII in the second half of 2025. JPMorgan, however, expects a decline in NII next quarter due to changes in the yield curve.
• Valuation Dynamics: Bank of America and Wells Fargo trade at more attractive valuations, with price-to-tangible book value (P/TBV) multiples around 1.6 times. JPMorgan, with a P/TBV of over 2.4 times, is considered overvalued by its CEO, Jamie Dimon.

International Payments Growth

• BRI and Nium Partnership: Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Indonesia’s largest state-owned bank, partnered with Nium, a global real-time cross-border payments platform, to provide real-time international money transfer capabilities to its customers. This empowers over 150 million BRI account holders to access modern financial services.
• Indonesia’s Growing Demand: Cross-border payments are projected to grow significantly in Indonesia, with an expected year-on-year increase of 15% through 2025. This growth is driven by digital transformation in financial services.

India’s Group Insolvency Framework

• Proposed Framework: The Indian government is considering introducing a “voluntary” group insolvency framework under the bankruptcy law. This would facilitate a joint resolution of stressed entities within a domestic corporate group.
• Addressing Resolution Delays: The framework aims to address delays in resolution processes for interconnected group companies, as seen in cases like Videocon, Era Infrastructure, and Lanco. The proposed framework would allow creditors to decide whether to pursue resolution processes jointly or separately, subject to National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) supervision.

Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Investor Gains

• Profitable Resolutions: Bondholders are poised to reap significant profits from the resolution of sovereign debt crises in countries like Ghana, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Ukraine, and Zambia. Debt Justice estimates that bondholders stand to make profits of $14 billion from these restructurings.
• Contingent Payment Provisions: Several of these restructurings include provisions that reward bondholders with higher payouts if the countries’ economies outperform targets in the years ahead.

ETF Adoption Trends

• Institutional Growth: Institutional adoption of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has accelerated in Europe, particularly among pension funds and insurance companies. BlackRock’s analysis reveals that, on average, 40% of the 10 largest pension funds in 16 European countries own iShares ETFs.
• Cost Savings for Institutions: ETFs offer significant cost savings for certain fixed income trades, with institutions achieving cost reductions of 3-5 bps compared to trading underlying securities.

U.S. Retirement Savings

• 529 Plan Changes: The SECURE Act 2.0 allows families to roll over unused 529 plan funds into a Roth IRA in the beneficiary’s name, subject to certain limitations. The maximum lifetime transfer amount is $35,000, with annual transfers capped at the Roth IRA contribution limit or the beneficiary’s actual earnings.
• IRS Guidance Needed: The IRS is yet to clarify certain aspects of the new rule, including the treatment of transfers exceeding the annual Roth IRA contribution limit and the effect of changing beneficiaries on the 15-year waiting period.

Social Security Outlook

• 2025 Benefit Increase: Social Security benefits are set to rise by 2.5% in 2025, the smallest increase in several years.
• Program Challenges: Social Security is facing financial challenges, with its trust funds projected to run out by 2035. The program is also struggling to keep pace with inflation.
• Planning for the Future: Retirees should be prepared for potential benefit cuts and the need to rely more heavily on their savings.

Healthcare

Nurse Contract Negotiations

• Massachusetts Nurse Contract Agreement: 500 nurses at Brigham and Women’s Faulkner Hospital reached a new contract with the Massachusetts Nurses Association (MNA). The agreement includes raises of 25% to 33% over three years, aimed at improving nurse recruitment and retention, addressing staffing shortages, and enhancing patient care quality.

Behavioral Healthcare Company Investigation

• Acadia Healthcare Lawsuit and Investigations: Acadia Healthcare Company (ACHC) faces a class action lawsuit alleging deceptive practices, including holding patients against their will and abuse. This stems from a New York Times article detailing patient experiences at Acadia facilities. The company also received a voluntary information request from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York and a grand jury subpoena related to admissions, length of stay, and billing practices.

Vitiligo Treatment Advancements in China

• Ruxolitinib Cream Approved in Greater Bay Area: China Medical System Holdings Limited (CMS) announced the first prescriptions for ruxolitinib phosphate cream, a novel vitiligo treatment, were issued in the Greater Bay Area. The product was approved by the Pharmaceutical Administration Bureau (ISAF) of Macau and Guangdong Provincial Medical Products Administration. The NDA for vitiligo indication of ruxolitinib cream has also been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration of China (NMPA).

Pharmaceutical R&D Update

• Nxera Pharma R&D Day Announcement: Nxera Pharma Co., Ltd. will hold an R&D Day on November 6, 2024, to provide updates on its pipeline of over 30 active programs addressing unmet needs in neurology, GI, and immunology. The company leverages its NxWave TM platform for GPCR-targeted structure-based drug discovery.

Economy & Real estate

Global Economic Trends

• Uneven Global Recovery: The global economy is showing signs of recovery, but persistent challenges remain. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director warns of high debt levels and low growth. The US and EU are taking steps to combat inflation with rate cuts, but the impact is uneven across regions. Geopolitical tensions add to the risks for global financial stability.
• China’s Economic Performance: China’s GDP grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, surpassing expectations. Retail sales and industrial production also showed positive growth. Despite these improvements, house prices continue to decline, highlighting challenges in the real estate sector.
• India’s Growth Potential: India is experiencing one of the fastest growth rates globally, but access to capital remains a challenge. Doubling the corporate bond market size could help finance ambitious growth plans, but regulatory hurdles make it difficult for long-term investors to participate in infrastructure projects.

Commercial Real Estate Landscape

• Interest Rate Cuts Fuel CRE Activity: The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts are providing a positive boost to the commercial real estate market. Lower interest rates make debt more affordable, encouraging deal flow and investment.
• Office Sector Challenges: Despite some improvement, the office sector is still struggling. Hybrid work trends and low demand continue to drive vacancy rates and flat rents.
• Multifamily Sector Growth: The multifamily housing market is experiencing increased demand. Net absorption reached its highest level in almost three years, fueled by a lack of affordable single-family homes and a stabilizing vacancy rate.

Residential Real Estate Dynamics

• Builder Confidence on the Rise: Builder confidence in the US housing market has increased for two consecutive months. This positive outlook is driven by easing inflation and expectations for stable mortgage rates.
• Mortgage Rate Fluctuations: While the Fed’s rate cuts have lowered mortgage rates, they have recently started to climb. This upward trend poses challenges for potential homebuyers and homebuilders.

Social Security and Tax Updates

• 2025 Cost-of-Living Adjustment for Social Security: Social Security benefits will receive a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2025. This is smaller than previous years, but it’s a positive sign reflecting cooling inflation.
• Payroll Tax Increase for High Earners: In 2025, the maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security FICA payroll tax will increase. This change will impact high earners and is necessary to maintain the long-term solvency of Social Security.

Retail

Earnings & Guidance

• Global Earnings Releases: Retailers worldwide are reporting earnings, revealing trends across the sector. Tims China, Tarkett, and Huhtamaki have released results showcasing varying performance. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported a 6% increase in revenue to $37.55 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, but adjusted EPS plunged 40% to $0.39. Procter & Gamble (PG) reported weaker-than-expected revenue in the fiscal first quarter with organic sales growth of 2% driven by higher prices. Adjusted EPS beat expectations at $1.93, while the company reaffirmed FY25 guidance for 2%-4% all-in sales growth.
• Hilton Q3 2024 Earnings Preview: Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 23, before the opening bell. Robust group bookings, corporate demand, and the ongoing recovery of business travel are expected to drive revenue growth.

Sustainability & Innovation

• Tims China’s Sustainability Focus: Tims China is showcasing its commitment to sustainability through recyclable coffee cups, packaging materials, and the use of coffee grounds in its stores, highlighting its innovations in the sustainable consumer sector in China.
• Edible Garden’s “Pickle Party”: Edible Garden AG Incorporated (Nasdaq: EDBL, EDBLW) is showcasing its innovative “Pickle Party” kosher pickles at the 2024 Global Produce & Floral Show. The company is redefining the fresh condiments category with its sustainable, USDA Organic, raw, and fermented product lines.

Restaurant Industry Trends

• US Restaurant Industry Performance: The US restaurant industry is facing challenges from high wages, food cost inflation, and traffic woes. Despite these headwinds, some restaurant stocks have flourished year to date.
• Key Restaurant Players: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is emphasizing food quality and expanding its digital program. Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) is a full-service, casual dining restaurant chain. Wingstop Inc. (WING) franchises and operates restaurants offering classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders.

Company Performance & News

• Retailer Specific Updates: Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is trading at a notable low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple. Carvana (CVNA) has made a remarkable turnaround. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) announced plans to close 1,200 stores over the next three years. Huhtamaki is expanding its smooth molded fiber (SMF) production. Better Choice Company (BTTR) is acquiring SRx Health Solutions Inc.
• Edible Garden’s “Pickle Party”: Edible Garden AG Incorporated (Nasdaq: EDBL, EDBLW) is showcasing its innovative “Pickle Party” kosher pickles at the 2024 Global Produce & Floral Show. The company is redefining the fresh condiments category with its sustainable, USDA Organic, raw, and fermented product lines.
• Casey’s General Stores (CASY): A $1000 investment made in October 2014 would be worth $5,094.50, or a gain of 409.45%, as of October 18, 2024. The company delivered strong performance in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with inside sales rising 7.6%.
• illycaffè: illycaffè is partnering with Art Basel Paris for the first time, showcasing its illy Art Collection by artists Simone Fattal, Shirin Neshat, Monica Bonvicini, and Binta Diaw.
• Colabor Group Inc. (GCL): Colabor announced the renewal of a supply agreement with an institutional customer, representing approximately 11% of the expected revenues for fiscal year 2024.
• Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT): Boot Barn has gained 116.8% since the start of the year. The company has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises.
• D-MARKET Electronic Services & Trading Unsponsored ADR (HEPS): D-MARKET has outperformed the Retail-Wholesale sector year-to-date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HEPS’ full-year earnings has moved 40% higher over the past 90 days.
• Freshpet (FRPT): Freshpet has outperformed the Consumer Staples sector year-to-date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FRPT’s full-year earnings has moved 33.6% higher over the past three months.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): Costco reported a 6.7% increase in comparable sales for the five weeks ending Oct. 6. Total comparable sales, excluding gasoline prices and foreign exchange rates, increased by 8.9%.
• Walmart (WMT): Walmart’s September retail sales jumped 0.5%, sharply higher than analysts’ expectations of a rise of just 0.1%.
• The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): TJX’s business model thrives on flexibility, allowing it to swiftly adapt to shifting market trends and seize new opportunities.
• Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST): Ross Stores is a leading off-price retailer, which allows it to cater to cost-conscious consumers seeking value.
• Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL): Burlington Stores is a nationally recognized off-price retailer, and has demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to consumer trends.
• Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB): Kimberly-Clark’s focus on innovation, consumer-centric approach and strategic investments in product development have been leading to successful launches and market expansion.
• Newell Brands Inc. (NWL): Newell Brands is accelerating productivity and efficiency through productivity plans, driving automation and fully implementing Project Ovid.
• Innovative Food Holdings, Inc. (IVFH): IVFH is pleased to announce the entry into a material definitive agreement to acquire 100% of the assets of Golden Organics, LLC, based in Denver, CO.
• Procter & Gamble Company (PG): P&G’s organic sales grew 2% year over year. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, expecting revenue growth between 2% and 4% and net earnings per share ranging from $6.91 to $7.05.
• Nestle S.A. (NSRGY): Nestle lowered its annual sales outlook due to the weak demand environment. The company announced corporate structure changes, aiming to streamline its operating structure.
• TreeHouse Foods, Inc. (THS): TreeHouse Foods issued a voluntary recall of specific frozen waffle products due to the potential risk of contamination with Listeria monocytogenes.
• eBay Inc. (EBAY): eBay and the McLaren Formula 1 Team have collaborated on a special project car, showcasing the marketplace’s broad selection of new and classic parts and accessories.
• Wawa, Inc.: Wawa announced the grand opening date of its first store in the state of Georgia, located in Bainbridge.
• Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): Deckers has seen strong performance in its HOKA and UGG brands, driven by product innovation, store expansion and enhancing e-commerce capabilities. The company also expects potential margin pressures due to rising costs and a shift toward a more normalized promotional environment.
• e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF): e.l.f. Beauty is facing challenges such as intense competition, a dynamic consumer landscape and elevated marketing expenses. The company is expanding its retail presence and distribution.
• Rally House: Rally House is opening its latest storefront, Rally House College Park, located just off the University of Maryland Campus.
• Patek Philippe: Patek Philippe announced its first new collection in 25 years, dubbed the Cubitus line. The new lineup includes three different models and is meant to “offer a new reinterpretation of the ‘elegant sporty’ style.”
• Tractor Supply Company (TSCO): Tractor Supply’s quarterly performance is likely to have benefited from sturdy demand and strong market share gains. The company is expected to report revenues of $3.5 billion in the third quarter of 2024.
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Abercrombie & Fitch is expected to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.2 billion.
• Chewy (CHWY): Chewy is expected to register bottom and top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.9 billion.
• Home Depot (HD): Home Depot is expected to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $39.2 billion.

Infrastructure

Electric School Bus V2G Deployment

• V2G Pilot Projects Nationwide: The SVIN project, receiving $10.9 million in DOE funding, will deploy 14 V2G pilot projects across the United States using electric school buses.
• Utility Program Development: This project aims to provide utilities with the experience and data needed to create and accelerate commercial V2G programs.
• Grid Resilience and Flexibility Enhancement: V2G technology increases grid flexibility and resilience by reducing expensive distribution system upgrades and enabling greater renewable energy integration.
• Policy Toolkit and Standardized Metrics: The SVIN project will develop a V2G Policy and Program Toolkit and establish data-driven, standardized metrics to assess the value of V2G assets.

Battery Energy Storage in South Africa

• Mogobe BESS Project Financial Closure: Scatec ASA has reached financial close for the 103 MW / 412 MWh Mogobe BESS facility in South Africa.
• Power Purchase Agreement Award: The project was awarded a 15-year PPA under South Africa’s BESIPPPP program, with payments for providing storage capacity to balance the grid.
• Project Financing Structure: The project is funded by a ZAR 2.7 billion (USD 154 million) non-recourse project debt and equity from the owners, with Scatec owning 51% of the equity.
• EPC and O&M Services by Scatec: Scatec will act as the EPC provider and provide O&M and AM services for the project.

Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure

• Contract Award to Joint Venture: Fluor Corporation, as part of a joint venture with Amentum and BWX Technologies, received a 10-year contract from the DOE for environmental management operations at the Hanford Site.
• Contract Scope and Responsibilities: The contract includes operating tank farm facilities, the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, and managing core functions such as security and emergency services.
• Fluor’s Backlog Strength: Fluor’s backlog increased to $32.3 billion at the end of Q2 2024, reflecting strong demand for its services across various sectors.
• Financial Impact on Fluor: Fluor will recognize its share of earnings from the contract through the equity method of accounting starting in Q4 2024.

Puerto Rico Airport Infrastructure Development

• Jacobs Contract for Airport Improvements: Jacobs Solutions Inc. was selected to provide architecture and engineering consulting services for the capital improvement program at Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport (SJU).
• Project Scope and Focus: The contract focuses on runway and taxiway improvements, sustainability initiatives, and developing a pavement management system.
• Resilient Infrastructure Expertise: Jacobs’ expertise in resilient infrastructure will be crucial in helping SJU plan for future weather-related disruptions.
• Strengthening Market Position in the Caribbean: This contract reinforces Jacobs’ presence in the Caribbean and demonstrates its commitment to helping global airports adapt to evolving passenger demands and climate challenges.

Sustainable Building Renovation in Montreal

• Battat Art Center Project Funding: The project, receiving $10.2 million in federal funding and $1 million in Quebec government funding, will renovate and expand an old industrial building into a new art center.
• Sustainable Design Principles: The expansion will adhere to zero-carbon building design standards and prioritize the use of Quebec lumber.
• Cultural and Community Impact of the Project: The Battat Art Center will provide spaces for creation and performance, supporting artists and promoting public appreciation of the arts.
• Economic and Environmental Benefits of the Project: The project incorporates ecological and economic strategies, promoting sustainable development and reducing the building’s environmental footprint.

Commodities

Gold Market

• Gold Price Surge: Gold prices have surged in 2024, hitting record highs, driven by factors including U.S. election uncertainty, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, loose monetary policy, and continued central bank purchases.
• Gold ETF Popularity: Investors have flocked to gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), all of which have seen over 29% growth in 2024, driven by the strong gold price rally.

Copper Market

• Copper Price Rise: Copper prices have more than doubled since 2020, driven by increasing demand from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Freeport-McMoRan, a major copper miner, is well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices, but much of the positive outlook might already be reflected in the stock price.

Zinc Market

• Macmillan Pass Project (Macpass): Fireweed Metals Corp. has reported significant quantities of by-product elements germanium and gallium at its Macpass zinc-lead-silver project in Canada, making it one of the world’s largest known accumulations of these critical minerals.

Oil and Gas Market

• OPEC Demand Revision: OPEC has revised down its global oil demand growth projections for 2024 and 2025 for the third time, citing sluggish consumption patterns in some regions.
• Shareholder Focus: International upstream operators are adapting to market headwinds by prioritizing shareholder returns, cutting capital expenditures, and returning excess cash to investors through dividends and buybacks.
• Renewable Energy Impact: The accelerating shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) poses a long-term risk to traditional oil demand.

Other

• Global Avocado Oil Market: The global avocado oil market is expected to reach USD 892.3 Million by 2031, with a CAGR of 5.82%, driven by growing demand for organic and natural products and increasing awareness of health benefits.
• Global Oleochemicals Market: The global oleochemicals market is projected to reach USD 54.43 Billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 6.3%, driven by rising demand for biodegradable and sustainable products and strict regulations on petrochemical derivatives.

Politics

2024 US Presidential Election

• Harris’s Federal Job Qualification Proposal: Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed eliminating unnecessary degree requirements for certain federal positions to widen the talent pool and potentially appeal to voters concerned about higher education costs.
• Routh’s Assassination Attempt and Judge Cannon’s Potential Bias: Ryan Routh, facing charges for attempting to assassinate former President Donald Trump, has requested the recusal of U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon due to concerns about her perceived bias towards Trump, fueled by his public praise of her rulings in his cases.
• Trump’s Cryptocurrency Platform Revenue Allocation: World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a cryptocurrency platform backed by Donald Trump, plans to allocate 75% of its protocol revenues to DT Marks DEFI, LLC, a Trump-associated entity, raising concerns about transparency and potential conflicts of interest.
• Trump’s Endorsements and Support: Trump is receiving support from influential figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Trump claims to have received support from Apple CEO Tim Cook and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, though both companies have denied these claims. While Harris has a slight lead in some polls, Trump’s position in the race has improved, with prediction markets showing a higher probability of his victory.

US Economic Policies and Debates

• Trump’s Tariff Proposals and Economic Concerns: Former President Donald Trump has proposed significant increases in import tariffs, including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Economists have criticized these proposals, warning that high tariffs could harm the U.S. economy by raising costs for consumers, hindering trade, and potentially leading to global conflict.
• Trump’s Auto Industry Tariffs: Trump continues to push for tariffs on cars imported from China and Mexico, citing the need to protect American automotive jobs. Critics argue that these tariffs could increase vehicle costs for consumers and damage the global automotive supply chain.

US Legal Developments and Court Cases

• Trump’s Election Interference Case Document Release: A federal judge has ordered the release of over 1,800 pages of documents filed by special counsel Jack Smith in the criminal election interference case against Donald Trump. These documents, including evidence used in prior filings, public information about Trump, and information from the House select committee investigating the January 6th Capitol riot, were released ahead of the November election, raising concerns about potential election interference.
• Florida Cannabis Legalization Ballot Initiative: The campaign for cannabis legalization in Florida has created political divides, with Governor Ron DeSantis opposing the measure and Donald Trump supporting it. This is the most expensive cannabis-related ballot initiative in U.S. history, with proponents spending over $100 million to secure a 60% vote to pass the amendment.

Cannabis Legalization Regulations and Missteps

• Cannabis Legalization Missteps: An analysis of recent cannabis legalization efforts in the U.S. highlights five regulatory missteps that have led to unexpected consequences. These include Minnesota’s legalization loopholes, New York’s regulatory chaos, California’s thriving unlicensed market, Washington D.C.’s “gift economy” workaround, and the loophole in the 2018 Farm Bill that legalized hemp derivatives. These missteps demonstrate the challenges of implementing cannabis legalization policies and the need for careful planning and execution.

Stock Picks

Internet – Commerce

Earnings Growth

• Alibaba Earnings Outlook: Wall Street analysts anticipate strong earnings growth for Alibaba in the coming quarters. Recent positive estimate revisions suggest a bullish sentiment towards the company’s future prospects.
• Maplebear Earnings Expectations: Maplebear’s earnings growth is projected to be more moderate compared to Alibaba. While some positive revisions have occurred, analysts’ expectations are more restrained.

Valuation

• Alibaba Valuation Metrics: Alibaba’s stock is currently trading at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and a low price-to-book (P/B) ratio, suggesting a possible undervaluation.
• Maplebear Valuation: Maplebear’s stock is trading at a higher valuation than Alibaba, with a higher P/E ratio and P/B ratio, indicating a potentially higher price relative to its fundamentals.

Investor Preference

• Value Investment Case: Based on current earnings growth projections and valuation metrics, Alibaba appears to be a more attractive option for value investors. Its lower valuation and stronger earnings outlook make it a potentially more compelling investment opportunity.