Eksentricity

Tech

AI Advancements and Digital Clones

• Zoom’s AI Clone Revolution: Zoom plans to introduce lifelike AI clones in 2025, capable of attending meetings, delivering presentations, and even lip-syncing to scripts. These AI avatars, customizable with user photos, aim to enhance communication and efficiency in remote work environments.
• AI Companion 2.0: Zoom is also launching AI Companion 2.0, a suite offering real-time suggestions, third-party app integration, and Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) for information retrieval. This suite, available for a monthly fee of $12, will analyze email threads and integrate with AI models like Claude, ChatGPT, and Perplexity.
• Digital Clone Concerns and Safeguards: While AI clones promise productivity gains, concerns about misuse arise from their ability to generate highly convincing replicas. Zoom plans to implement safeguards like authentication and watermarking to mitigate these risks.
• Digital Clone Landscape: Competition in the digital clone space is intensifying, with companies like Microsoft, Apple, Tavus, and Colossyan developing similar technologies.

SEC Crypto Crackdown

• Cumberland DRW SEC Charges: The SEC has charged Cumberland DRW, a leading crypto market maker, with operating as an unregistered dealer of securities and violating other securities laws. This case could set a precedent for other crypto firms and traders.
• Cumberland DRW’s Role: Cumberland DRW facilitates institutional investments in cryptocurrency by providing market-making and liquidity services, contributing to stable token prices and enabling large buy and sell orders.
• SEC Crypto Asset Targets: The SEC has labeled Solana, Polygon, Cosmos, Algorand, and Filecoin as securities, suggesting a broader crackdown on crypto assets. However, the market has remained largely unaffected by these actions, with prices holding steady.
• Gensler’s Uncertain Future: SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s position is facing mounting pressure due to political pressure in Washington. Some believe that he is unlikely to be reappointed, leading to speculation about the future of the SEC’s stance on crypto.

AI Chip Race: AMD and Nvidia Battle

• AMD’s MI350 Challenge: AMD has announced its upcoming MI350 chip, based on the CDNA 4 architecture, scheduled to ship in the second half of 2025. The MI350 promises up to 35 times better inference performance than its predecessors, aiming to compete with Nvidia’s Blackwell system.
• Nvidia’s Blackwell Platform: Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU platform is in full production with strong demand, according to CEO Jensen Huang. Microsoft has become the first cloud provider to offer the new GB200 chips to its clients.
• AMD’s AI Leadership Ambitions: AMD CEO Lisa Su has outlined a long-term vision for the company to become the “end-to-end AI leader” within the next decade. AMD projects a $400 billion AI chip market by 2027.

Tesla’s “We, Robot” Event

• Tesla’s Cybercab Unveiling: Tesla unveiled its two-seater robotaxi, the Cybercab, featuring butterfly doors and inductive charging. The vehicle is expected to be priced below $30,000.
• Robovan Debut: Tesla also revealed the Robovan, a 20-seater autonomous vehicle with an angular structure and no pedals. The launch and commercialization plans for the Robovan remain unclear.
• Optimus Robot Update: Elon Musk reiterated plans for the Optimus robot, priced between $20,000 and $30,000 upon mass production.
• Investor Reactions: Tesla stock experienced initial gains in after-hours trading but then plummeted, as investors expressed disappointment over the lack of concrete details on production timelines and the company’s overall business strategy.

Finance

Interest Rate Impact

• Interest Rate Cuts and Net Interest Income: Lower interest rates can negatively impact banks’ net interest income, as they earn less on loans while paying higher rates to depositors.
• South Korea’s Central Bank Rate Cut: South Korea’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 3.25% in September 2024, aiming to stimulate economic growth amid low inflation.
• JPMorgan Chase Earnings: JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter 2024 earnings, exceeding expectations due to higher interest income from investments and loan growth.
• Wells Fargo Earnings: Wells Fargo reported third-quarter 2024 earnings exceeding expectations but revenue fell short, with net interest income declining 11% from the same period last year.

Bank Regulations and Enforcement

• Capital Requirements and Regulatory Changes: Regulators are increasing capital requirements for banks, raising concerns about potential impacts on economic growth and market health.
• Wells Fargo Enforcement Agreement: Wells Fargo agreed to enhance its anti-money laundering and sanctions risk management practices following regulatory action.
• TD Securities USA Settlement: TD Securities USA, the U.S. broker-dealer unit of the Toronto-Dominion Bank, agreed to pay over $20 million to settle allegations of Treasuries market manipulation.

Securities Class Action Lawsuits

• Misleading Statements and Omissions: Several companies have faced class action lawsuits alleging they misled investors with false or incomplete information about their business and financial performance.
• DexCom Class Action: DexCom, Inc., and its executives are facing a lawsuit alleging misleading statements about the company’s business and prospects.
• Extreme Networks Class Action: Extreme Networks, Inc., and its executives are facing a lawsuit alleging overstated product demand and inaccurate growth projections.
• Elanco Animal Health Class Action: Elanco Animal Health and its executives are facing a lawsuit alleging false or misleading statements about the safety and regulatory timeline of a new product.

Other Finance News

• Bank of New York Mellon Performance: The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation exceeded earnings estimates in the third quarter of 2024, reporting a 19.7% increase year-over-year.
• Share Repurchases and Dividends: Numerous companies announced share buyback programs, dividend increases, or upcoming financial results announcements.
• Mergers and Acquisitions: Several financial institutions announced acquisitions of fintech companies, demonstrating the growing trend of financial institutions investing in technology.
• Fund and ETF Performance: Various mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exhibited varying performance levels, with some displaying strong returns while others showed more moderate results.
• Insider Trading: Several financial institutions’ CEOs expressed positive sentiments regarding the current economic climate and loan demand across various sectors.

Key Trends

• Interest Rates and Bank Performance: Interest rate changes continue to significantly impact banks’ profitability and lending activities.
• Investment Banking Activity: Investment banking fees are on the rise due to increased dealmaking activity.
• ESG Investing: ESG considerations are gaining traction among investors, driving the demand for sustainable investment products.
• Cryptocurrency: The growing acceptance of cryptocurrency is fueling investments in crypto-related businesses.
• Securities Class Action Litigation: The frequency of securities class action lawsuits indicates increased investor scrutiny and potential legal challenges for companies.

Healthcare

Drug & Biopharma Market

• GLP-1 Weight Loss Dominance: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the weight loss market with Wegovy and Zepbound, respectively, generating billions in revenue. The success of these drugs highlights a significant shift in healthcare toward weight management.
• New Players Entering the Market: Amgen, Altimmune, and Zealand Pharma are developing next-generation weight loss drugs with improved efficacy and alternative delivery methods, challenging the market’s current landscape.
• Cancer Immunotherapy Advancements: Tevogen Bio is developing off-the-shelf, genetically unmodified T cell therapeutics to treat infectious diseases and cancers. Their ExacTcell™ platform aims to support cancer patients.

Precision Medicine & Diagnostics

• Companion Diagnostics & Biomarkers: Burning Rock Biotech and Dizal received NMPA approval for a co-developed NGS-based companion diagnostic for lung cancer, demonstrating a trend towards simultaneous drug and diagnostic development.
• Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS): PacBio and the National Cancer Centre of Singapore are collaborating to accelerate cancer research using PacBio’s advanced sequencing technologies, including the Onso short-read sequencing platform.
• Targeted Therapy with PROTACs: PROTACs, a novel approach to targeted therapy, are being explored for lung cancer by Haisco Pharmaceutical and Arvinas, offering potential solutions for drug-resistant cancers.

Digital Health & AI

• AI in Healthcare: Companies like GE HealthCare, Stryker, and Veradigm are integrating AI into their medical technologies to enhance patient care, improve workflows, and advance medical imaging.
• AI in Drug Development: Myriad Genetics is collaborating with Ultima Genomics to explore the potential of the UG 100 sequencing platform for clinical tests in oncology and reproductive genomics.

Company Restructuring & Strategic Prioritization

• Turnstone Biologics: Turnstone Biologics announced a strategic prioritization of its pipeline, resulting in a workforce reduction of approximately 60% and changes to its leadership team to focus on its Phase 1 program, TIDAL-01.
• Aligos Therapeutics: Aligos Therapeutics granted stock options to new employees to incentivize recruitment and retention of key personnel.
• InnovAge Holding: InnovAge Holding is showcasing its clinical, operational, and business transformations, demonstrating a commitment to continuous improvement and a patient-centric approach.

Financial Updates & Market Insights

• Sandoz: Sandoz, a global leader in generic and biosimilar medicines, announced the launch of a generic paclitaxel formulation in the US, highlighting the company’s commitment to providing affordable access to life-changing medicines.
• Roche: Roche received FDA approval for Itovebi™ (inavolisib) in combination with palbociclib and fulvestrant for treating endocrine-resistant, PIK3CA-mutated breast cancer, offering a new treatment option.

Economy & Real estate

US Economy & Inflation

• Consumer Sentiment Remains High Despite Dip: The University of Michigan’s preliminary October Survey of Consumers showed a slight decline in consumer sentiment, falling from 70.1 in September to 68.9 points. However, sentiment remains 8% higher than a year ago and nearly 40% above the low point recorded in June 2022.
• Wholesale Inflation Stable in September: The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged in September at 0.0%, marking the fourth time this year that the index has stayed flat. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% as expected.
• Fed May Be Nearing Inflation Target: Recent inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve may be nearing its 2% inflation target. Goldman Sachs predicts the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index for September will show a 12-month inflation rate of 2.04%.
• Fed May Continue Rate Cuts: Lower inflation opens the door for the Fed to keep cutting rates, especially as it focuses on the labor market. The central bank is expected to continue cutting rates, potentially returning to its normal quarter-point reductions.

China’s Economy & Stimulus

• Stimulus Measures Await: Investors await fresh policies from Beijing that could jumpstart the economy. While some analysts are confident that major fiscal stimulus will be announced, others remain skeptical.
• Retail Investors Fuel Market Surge: Chinese equities have surged in recent weeks, attracting a wave of retail investors following the announcement of stimulus measures on September 24. This surge saw almost Rmb3tn ($424bn) of buying on October 8 alone.
• Market Volatility and Risk: Many investors recall the 2015 market crash, which was heavily influenced by policy announcements. The current market volatility underscores the risks of a headlong dash back into China’s equities, with some using the phrase “cutting leeks” – a reference to investment newcomers who rush in at the top of the market only to be scythed down.
• Capital Flows and Real Estate Impact: The ongoing capital markets reform momentum and reconfiguration of the real estate industry will drive household asset reallocation, potentially leading to a significant inflow of capital to the China equity markets.

India’s Economic Growth

• World Bank Maintains Growth Forecast: The World Bank retained its GDP growth forecast for India at 7% for FY25, citing higher agricultural production and robust employment growth from policy initiatives.
• Strongest Growth in South Asia: India’s growth rate in FY25 is projected to be the second highest among South Asian nations after Bhutan. It is expected to regain the fastest-growing economy tag in the next fiscal year with 6.7% growth.
• Fiscal Deficit Reduction: The World Bank forecasts India’s fiscal deficit to reduce by 0.7 percentage point of GDP in 2024-25, reaching 7.5% of GDP due to “higher revenues from improved compliance with the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a broadening of the personal income tax base.”
• Attracting Global Investors: India is likely to attract global investors “seeking locations with low geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.”

Russia’s Economy & War Effort

• Military Spending Risks Financial Imbalance: Russia’s war-orientated economy and plans for unprecedented military spending risk deepening major imbalances within the government’s finances.
• Aggressive Military Budget Expansion: The draft 2025-2027 budget envisages defense spending rising sharply to 13.5 trillion roubles ($145 billion) in 2025, up 25% from the 2024 level and amounting to 6.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).
• Economic Challenges and Inflation: Russia is facing labor shortages, rising government spending, and various tax increases, which could contribute to sustained inflationary pressures.
• Impact on Living Standards and Growth: Unprecedented military spending comes at the expense of investments into other sectors such as education, healthcare, or infrastructure, “which will negatively affect the quality of public services and erode economic growth and competitiveness in the longer term.”

UK Economy

• GDP Grows in August But Sentiment Remains Unchanged: The British economy expanded by 0.2% in August after flatlining in June and July. This improvement is unlikely to change sentiment about the Labour Party’s economic stewardship.
• Interest Rate Cut Expected: Money markets suggest a 93% probability that the Bank of England (BOE) will reduce rates to 4.75% from 5% on November 7.
• Fiscal Challenges and Public Discontent: The UK economy faces a sharp increase in long-term borrowing costs, which could pose a problem for the government’s first budget on October 30. The UK GDP growth is unlikely to improve public opinion, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s popularity has fallen steeply since moving into 10 Downing Street.

Retail

Mergers & Acquisitions

• PepsiCo Acquires Siete Foods: PepsiCo, a multinational food and beverage company, acquired Siete Foods, a Hispanic food brand specializing in tortillas and other products, for $1.2 billion. The acquisition strengthens PepsiCo’s presence in the Hispanic food category and adds to its portfolio of salty snacks.
• Better Choice Expands into Veterinary Medicine: Better Choice Company, a pet health and wellness brand, announced plans to enter the veterinary medicine market. The company acquired SRx Health and plans to launch Better Pet Rx in 2025, offering pet care services and complementing its existing pet food brands.
• PPG Partners with Shaw Industries: PPG Industries, a global paint and coatings company, entered a strategic partnership with Shaw Industries Group, a leading flooring company. The partnership allows PPG to offer its resinous flooring products to Shaw’s commercial customers, expanding PPG’s market reach.

Performance Highlights

• Nike’s Stock Slump: Nike’s stock price has fallen by over 25% this year due to declining sales growth. The company is facing challenges in its North American market, with revenue dropping by 11%. However, the new CEO, Elliott Hill, is expected to implement strategies to improve the company’s performance.
• Funko’s Resurgence: Funko, a pop culture brand specializing in collectible figures and other products, has experienced a resurgence in its stock price, rising by 62% this year. Improved leadership, reduced inventory, and strong sales are driving the company’s turnaround.
• Costco’s Membership Growth: Costco Wholesale Corporation, a membership-based warehouse club, continues to see strong membership growth. The company has reached 76.2 million paid members, representing a 7.3% increase from the previous year.
• Restaurant Brands’ Comps Growth: Restaurant Brands International, a global quick-service restaurant company, reported positive comparable sales growth, driven by menu innovation and strong performance from Tim Hortons. Acquisitions of Carrols and Popeyes China are expected to contribute to future growth.

Industry Trends

• Retailers Embrace E-commerce: Many retailers are continuing to invest in their e-commerce capabilities and omnichannel strategies to adapt to evolving consumer preferences. Costco, for example, saw an 18.9% increase in e-commerce comparable sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.
• Inflationary Pressures Impact Spending: The consumer environment is marked by inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, affecting consumer spending habits. Retailers are facing challenges in maintaining sales and profitability due to increased costs and cautious consumer spending.
• Intense Market Competition: Competition in the retail sector remains fierce, with new brands emerging and challenging established players. Traditional retailers are facing competition from online giants like Amazon, while established brands are facing competition from new entrants in premium categories.
• Digital Transformation Key: Companies across the retail sector are prioritizing digital transformation, focusing on building a strong digital footprint and integrating online and offline channels. G-III Apparel Group, for example, is investing in its e-commerce platforms and collaborating with online retailers to reach a wider audience.

Infrastructure

Ferry Traffic

• Freight Volume Increase: Total freight volumes in September 2024 were 4.4% higher compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 3.467 million lane metres. This increase was attributed to the addition of new routes in the Strait of Gibraltar, with a 1.0% increase after adjusting for the closure of the Calais-Tilbury route.
• Passenger Growth: Passenger numbers in September 2024 were up 39.4% year-over-year, reaching 564,000 passengers. However, this growth shrinks to a 2.7% decline when accounting for the new Strait of Gibraltar routes.
• Twelve-Month Performance: Freight lane metres for the last twelve months (2024-23) increased by 5.6% to 40.7 million, reaching a record high. Adjusted for new routes and closures, the growth remains strong at 2.8%. Similarly, passenger numbers for the last twelve months (2024-23) increased by 43.8% to 6.4 million. This represents a 6.5% increase after adjusting for new routes.

Global Shipbuilding Boom

• Defense Spending Surge: Countries worldwide are increasing their defense budgets, resulting in a surge in orders for warships, such as the recently launched USS Harrisburg.
• Market Growth Projections: The global naval vessels market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.5% between 2024 and 2029, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending.
• Submarine Market Outlook: The global submarine market is projected to experience even faster growth, with a projected CAGR of 7.6% between 2024 and 2029, driven by the need for advanced technologies like stealth capabilities and underwater surveillance.
• Key Player Positioning: Companies like Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), General Dynamics Corporation (GD), BAE Systems (BAESY), and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) are well-positioned to benefit from this expanding market.

Construction & Infrastructure Investments

• Tutor Perini’s Backlog: Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) has a strong backlog of $10.42 billion, up from $9.98 billion in the previous quarter, indicating robust demand for its services in the large-scale construction sector.
• Mega Project Opportunities: The company is benefiting from limited competition in mega construction projects, enhancing its chances of winning contracts and improving margins.
• Debt Reduction Efforts: TPC has successfully reduced its total debt by 25% in recent quarters, reaching $676 million, driven by strong contract wins and favorable market conditions.
• Rising Cost Concerns: The company faces challenges with rising operating costs, particularly due to higher share-based compensation, which could impact profitability.

Renewable Energy

• Gibraltar Industries Growth Strategy: Gibraltar Industries Inc. (ROCK) is benefiting from its three-pillar growth strategy, focused on business systems, portfolio management, and organizational development.
• Infrastructure Segment Strength: The company’s Infrastructure segment is experiencing strong growth, driven by the global trend toward infrastructure modernization and energy transition.
• Solar Market Performance: Gibraltar is seeing positive demand for its 1P tracker product in the solar market, despite some headwinds from trade policies and regulatory issues.
• Residential & Renewables Segment Slowdown: The company has adjusted its 2024 net sales outlook downward due to slower market conditions in its Residential and Renewables segments.

Waste Management & Recycling

• Terex Acquisition: Terex Corporation (TEX) has acquired Dover Corporation’s (DOV) Environmental Solutions Group (ESG), strengthening its portfolio in the waste and recycling industry, boosting its revenue, free cash flow, and earnings per share.
• Market Trends: The waste, recycling, and utility markets are expected to benefit from trends toward electrification, circularity, and energy transition.
• Synergy Potential: Terex expects to realize $25 million in synergies from the ESG acquisition by the end of 2026, driven by procurement and supply chain efficiencies, and commercial initiatives.
• Lowered Guidance: Terex has lowered its 2024 guidance for sales and earnings per share due to weak demand in its construction equipment segment.

Electric Utility Infrastructure

• MYR Group Conference Attendance: MYR Group Inc. (MYRG) will be attending the Baird 2024 Global Industrial Conference to meet with institutional investors.
• Transmission & Distribution Segment: MYR Group’s T&D segment provides services for electric transmission, distribution networks, substation facilities, clean energy projects, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
• Commercial & Industrial Segment: MYR Group’s C&I segment offers a range of services for commercial and industrial wiring, covering various sectors like airports, hospitals, data centers, and manufacturing plants.
• Market Opportunities: MYR Group is well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth in demand for electric utility infrastructure services, driven by the transition to clean energy and the expansion of electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

Commodities

Uranium Exploration

• ATH Energy Acquires Spire and Horizon: ATHA Energy Corp. has entered into a definitive option agreement with Terra Uranium Ltd. (ASX: T92) to acquire a 70% interest in ATHA’s Spire and Horizon properties. This move expands ATHA’s portfolio with a minimum of $4,750,000 in exploration expenditures. In return, ATHA will have the right to acquire a 60% interest in T92’s Pasfield Lake property.
• Greenridge and ALX Merger: Greenridge Exploration Inc. will acquire all outstanding common shares of ALX Resources Corp., creating a leading Canadian uranium exploration company with interests in 16 projects totaling approximately 220,000 hectares.
• Global Uranium Corp. Survey: Global Uranium Corp. is preparing to commence a ground-based radiometric survey across its Wyoming uranium projects. This survey will help identify high-priority targets for future drilling.

Lithium

• Rio Tinto Acquires Arcadium: Rio Tinto acquired Arcadium Lithium for $5.85 per share in an all-cash deal valued at $6.7 billion. The acquisition gives Rio Tinto access to the rapidly growing lithium market in Argentina and strengthens its domestic assets.
• Lithium Prices Surge: The closure of a major lithium mine in China by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) has boosted lithium prices, leading to an uptick in the stock prices of lithium miners.
• Lithium Ionic Corp.’s Drilling Results: Lithium Ionic Corp. (LTHCF) announced significant drilling results at its Bandeira Lithium Project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, highlighting the largest lithium-bearing intercept at Bandeira to date.

Gold

• Gold Price Recovers: Gold prices recovered, reaching 2,644.00 USD per troy ounce on Friday, as investors navigated mixed signals from recent US economic data.
• Royal Gold Sales Update: Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) issued a stream segment sales update for third-quarter 2024, reporting a growth in gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) sold.

Energy

• Texas Pacific Land: Texas Pacific Land is a high-margin cash cow that benefits from sustained investment in the Permian Basin. While its stock price is expensive compared to its historical multiple, it could still be a good buy for risk-averse investors.
• Petrobras Refineries: Petrobras (PBR) achieved remarkable milestones in refining operations, significantly improving the utilization of its refineries and reaching unprecedented production levels.
• BP Production Flat: BP p.l.c. (BP) shares are trading lower on premarket on Friday due to the company’s disclosed updated third-quarter guidance. The company expects upstream production to remain roughly flat compared to the previous quarter.
• ConocoPhillips: ConocoPhillips COP is a core holding in the E&P sector, thanks to its robust portfolio and shareholder-friendly cash return framework.
• Eni SpA’s Renewable Energy: Eni SpA’s (E) renewable energy arm, Plenitude, has announced the start of operations at the Numancia wind plant in Soria, Spain.

Metals

• Steel Dynamics Earnings: Analysts expect Steel Dynamics (STLD) to announce quarterly earnings of $1.98 per share, representing a decline of 42.9% year over year.
• Alcoa Revenue Forecast: Analysts forecast revenues of $2.98 billion for Alcoa (AA), representing an increase of 14.5% year over year.
• Schlumberger Earnings: Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Schlumberger (SLB) reports results for the quarter ended September 2024.

Company Updates

• Constellium SE: Constellium SE (NYSE: CSTM) will host a conference call and webcast on Wednesday, October 23, 2024, at 10:00 AM (Eastern Time) to announce its third-quarter 2024 results.
• Balchem Corporation: Balchem Corporation (NASDAQ: BCPC) announced that a conference call will be held on Friday, October 25, 2024, at 11:00 AM Eastern Time (ET) to review third-quarter results.
• U.S. Energy Corporation: U.S. Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: USEG) regained compliance with the minimum bid price rule, and is now in compliance with all applicable listing standards.
• StateHouse Holdings Bankruptcy: StateHouse Holdings, a major player in the cannabis industry, has announced its entry into bankruptcy proceedings under Canada’s Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act.
• Acadian Timber Corp. Earnings: Acadian Timber Corp. (TSX:ADN) will release its 2024 third quarter results after market close on Wednesday, October 30, 2024.
• Northland Power Inc. Earnings: Northland Power Inc. (TSX: NPI) announced today it will release its 2024 third quarter operating and financial results after markets close on Wednesday, November 13, 2024.
• Hemlo Explorers Inc. Private Placement: Hemlo Explorers Inc. (CSE: HMLO) has increased the size of its non-brokered private placement due to high investor interest.

Politics

US Presidential Election 2024

• Trump’s Odds Surge in Prediction Markets: Prediction markets like Polymarket show a surge in Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election. His odds have increased to 55% from 49% last week, likely driven by his recent rallies and focus on key swing states like Pennsylvania. Conversely, Kamala Harris’ odds have dropped to 44%.
• Candidates’ Stances on Cannabis Legalization: The 2024 US presidential election sees both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump supporting some level of cannabis legalization. This shift reflects changing public opinion and growing acceptance of cannabis use. The cannabis industry anticipates regulatory reforms following the election.
• Hurricane Recovery & Political Rhetoric: The 2024 election unfolds amidst Hurricane Helene and Milton’s aftermath. Both Harris and Trump visited swing states to rally support. Trump has been criticized for using the disaster for political gain, while Harris advocates for unity and opposes politicizing the situation.
• Obama Endorses Harris: Former President Barack Obama endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidency, highlighting her “plans to make your life better” and criticizing Donald Trump’s leadership. This endorsement comes as the race remains close, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania.

Global Politics

• Nihon Hidankyo Wins Nobel Peace Prize: Nihon Hidankyo, the Japanese atomic bomb survivor movement, won the Nobel Peace Prize. The award recognizes their efforts to promote a world free of nuclear weapons and raise awareness of their humanitarian consequences. Nihon Hidankyo’s contributions to the international “nuclear taboo” were acknowledged.

Domestic Policy

• US Social Security Changes in 2025: Social Security beneficiaries will experience a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2025. Other changes include a higher earnings-test limit, a higher wage cap, and a higher maximum monthly benefit. These changes also involve increased payroll taxes for higher earners to contribute more to the program.

International Relations

• Canada Deepens Ties with ASEAN: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a $128 million package to strengthen Canada’s partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The investment aims to boost trade, combat climate change, strengthen security cooperation, and promote women’s rights in the region.

Legislative Developments

• Czech Kratom and HHC Regulations: The Czech Senate passed amendments to restrict the sale of kratom and HHC products, aiming to limit their availability to adults and specific stores. This decision reflects ongoing discussions about cannabis regulation in the Czech Republic.

Stock Picks

Robo-Taxi and AI

• Tesla’s Robo-Taxi Debut: Tesla is expected to unveil its dedicated robotaxi product at an event in Los Angeles, anticipated to be held late on Thursday.
• Uber’s AI Assistant: Uber is working towards a zero-emission platform by 2040, with measures including the introduction of an AI assistant on the driver app to help with EV-related queries.
• AMD’s AI Focus: Advanced Micro Devices hosted its “Advancing AI 2024” event, launching several new high-performance computing solutions for the growing AI market.

Software

Strong Buy Stocks

• Ageas (AGESY) Earnings Growth: The international insurance company offers international insurance services such as life and non-life, disability, and medical to individuals and groups. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased 8.5% over the last 60 days.
• Intapp (INTA) Cloud-Based Solutions: This company provides industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions that enable connected professional and financial services firms. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased 6.9% over the last 60 days.
• StepStone Group (STEP) Investment Solutions: This private markets investment firm focuses on providing investment solutions and advisory and data services to its clients. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased 5.8% over the last 60 days.

E-Commerce

Market Share and Holiday Spending

• Amazon’s Market Dominance: The online marketplace will account for 40.4% of retail e-commerce sales in the U.S. this year, up 100 basis points from the previous year.
• Uber’s Rideshare Market Share: Uber dominates the U.S. rideshare market with 76% share.
• Holiday Spending Outlook: Amazon and Uber are expected to benefit from holiday spending and travel, respectively.

Financial

Banking Fines and Dividends

• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Money Laundering Fines: The bank agreed to pay approximately $3.09 billion in fines to U.S. authorities after pleading guilty to money laundering-related charges.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) Dividend Growth: This aerospace and defense contractor has grown its dividend payout at a steady rate, leading to a total return (including dividends) of close to 5,000% in the last 30 years.
• ExxonMobil (XOM) Dividend Record: ExxonMobil has raised its dividend for 42 years in a row, making it one of the most reliable income stocks in the oil patch.

Energy

Oil Performance and Permian Basin Growth

• ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Performance: The energy stock has been the standout among its peer group year to date, outperforming the energy sector by a wide margin.
• Oil Price Volatility: U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices surged nearly $8 per barrel in two days, driven by Middle East tensions.
• Permian Basin Expansion: ExxonMobil expects to reach 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Permian production by 2027.

Consumer Discretionary

Cruise Lines Performance

• Carnival (CCL) Record Revenue: The cruise ship operator has been routinely posting record numbers, with revenue reaching an all-time high of $7.9 billion in the third quarter.
• Carnival Valuation: Carnival stock trades at around 15 times its trailing earnings, which is lower than the historical average.
• Booking Strength for 2025 and 2026: The company is seeing strong booking for 2025 and 2026.

Retail

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Brand Diversification and Sales Growth

• Deckers Brand Diversification: Deckers owns popular shoe brands such as Ugg, Hoka, Teva, and Sanuk, giving it broad exposure to the shoe market.
• Strong Sales and Margins: Revenue for Deckers has increased at an impressive pace in recent years, lifting its gross and net margins to all-time highs.
• Deckers Valuation: The stock trades at 31 times earnings, which is pricey for a shoe stock.